The Federal Reserve's shift to a gradual, modest balance-sheet expansion limits macro stimulus for Bitcoin. At the same time, liquidity and M2 have begun to diverge, creating occasional price-decoupling, while cheap oil keeps inflation in check, influencing mining economics.
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to rush into easing until a leadership change, and even then policymakers remain cautious about inflation and job growth. Market expectations of multiple cuts are tempered by a dovish-but-still-guarded tone.