Lyn Alden: Why This Bitcoin Cycle Was a Disappointment, And What Comes Next
Lyn Alden dissects why the latest Bitcoin rally fell short, the role of retail, AI, institutions and macro forces, and why diversification and self‑custody remain key.
55m·Guest Lyn Alden·Host Natalie Brunell·
Disappointing Cycle, Still Upside
The most recent Bitcoin rally failed to meet lofty expectations, stopping well below the 150 k level many analysts had penciled in. Yet, because Bitcoin remains a tiny asset class, its price can still swing dramatically, much like gold and silver have done in the past. The weak bull market and muted retail participation were the primary brakes on price.
Bitcoin’s 2023‑24 rally missed the 150 k target, but the asset’s small size still leaves huge upside potential
- The peak of the cycle was only 126 k, well below the 150 k level Lyn Alden warned would be disappointing.
- Bitcoin’s market cap is still modest compared with gold and silver, meaning price moves can be outsized.
- Small‑cap dynamics historically allow large percentage swings, as seen when gold and silver moved sharply despite their massive markets.
- The disappointment is real, but the upside remains because the asset is far from saturated.
- Future upside will depend on new narratives and broader adoption rather than pure price momentum.
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00:00:01“I think this has been a disappointing cycle, but I'd like to think that Bitcoin can still go up quite a bit.” — Lyn Alden
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00:05:12“Bitcoin is a fairly small asset.” — Lyn Alden
Historical price dynamics show tiny assets can move like gold and silver, suggesting Bitcoin could still surge
- Gold and silver have demonstrated massive price moves even though they are huge markets, proving that size isn’t a barrier to volatility.
- Bitcoin, being far smaller, can experience similar or larger percentage swings.
- Lyn Alden points to the 2020‑2021 gold rally and recent silver moves as analogues.
- This historical perspective underpins the argument that Bitcoin’s upside isn’t exhausted.
- Investors should therefore weigh the asset‑size advantage when assessing future price scenarios.
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00:00:04“We saw how gold and silver could move like they did despite being very large markets.” — Lyn Alden
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00:07:33“Gold has been outperforming S&P even with those dividends.” — Lyn Alden
A weak bull market and limited retail inflow capped Bitcoin’s price growth
- Retail typically jumps in when an asset outperforms every other class; Bitcoin’s modest performance failed to create that pull.
- The 2022‑23 bull market was “fairly weak,” lacking the spectacular rally that usually draws mass participation.
- Without strong retail demand, price discovery stayed muted, keeping the peak at 126 k.
- Lyn Alden notes that the absence of a clear narrative and a robust alt‑season further dulled enthusiasm.
- Consequently, the cycle’s upside was throttled by both market sentiment and participation levels.
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00:01:35“what attracts retail a lot of times is when you have an asset that's outperforming every other asset in the world and people say, "Well, I have to learn more about that. What's going on there?"” — Lyn Alden
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00:02:22“I was on record saying anything under 150K would be pretty disappointing. We only got to 126.” — Lyn Alden
Retail Adoption Gap
Retail investors have historically driven Bitcoin's biggest rallies, but this cycle saw almost no retail participation. The lack of a compelling narrative, a missing alt-season and the perception that Bitcoin was merely "okay" compared with soaring AI-related stocks kept everyday investors on the sidelines.
Retail only jumps in when an asset dramatically outperforms, and Bitcoin’s modest gains left them on the sidelines
- Retail investors look for assets that clearly beat every other class; Bitcoin’s price action was “okay” relative to AI‑related equities.
- When GPU and AI stocks surged, Bitcoin’s performance seemed tame, reducing its allure.
- Lyn Alden observes that the lack of a spectacular price breakout meant retail never felt the FOMO pull.
- This dynamic explains why the 2023‑24 rally lacked the mass‑buying wave seen in earlier cycles.
- Future retail inflows will likely require a clear, differentiated performance narrative.
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00:01:39“people say, "Well, I have to learn more about that. What's going on there?"” — Lyn Alden
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00:03:09“there wasn't really anything happening there.” — Lyn Alden
The absence of an alt‑season and a strong narrative left retail disengaged
- Lyn Alden notes there was “no really you alt season to speak of,” meaning the usual crypto‑wide rally never materialised.
- Precious‑metal enthusiasm also drew attention away, creating a “barbell” where neither sovereign nor retail demand materialised for Bitcoin.
- Without a unifying story, retail investors had little reason to allocate capital.
- This narrative vacuum contributed directly to the muted price action.
- Re‑igniting retail will likely need a fresh, high‑visibility narrative beyond AI hype.
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00:01:01“there was no really you alt season to speak of and I think that whole industry's kind of run out of narratives” — Lyn Alden
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00:02:45“the precious metals bull run also kind of drew some attention.” — Lyn Alden
Retail’s fear of missing out can push them toward risky altcoins; caution is essential
- When investors feel they’re “behind,” they often double‑down on high‑risk assets, a mindset Lyn Alden warns against.
- This leads to chasing “junkiest” altcoins, hoping for 100× gains, which can end in disappointment.
- The host’s observation that many feel compelled to bet bigger when they’re late underscores the psychological trap.
- Alden recommends measured exposure rather than reckless FOMO‑driven bets.
- Proper risk management and diversification can mitigate the downside of this mindset.
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00:48:34“Caution with that approach of feeling that if you're behind, they have to bet riskier because that's also the same mindset that people will then use to buy the riskiest, junkiest like altcoin out there.” — Lyn Alden
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00:48:38“they're thinking, well, Bitcoin can only go up a certain amount, whereas this no‑name token could go up 100x starting from such a tiny base.” — Lyn Alden
Narrative Competition: AI and Metals
The AI boom and a renewed precious-metal rally stole the spotlight from Bitcoin. With investors' attention split, Bitcoin lacked the narrative firepower needed to sustain a higher price, while the "barbell" effect left both sovereign and retail demand muted.
AI hype diverted capital and attention away from Bitcoin, suppressing its price
- AI‑related equities captured headlines, media coverage, and investor dollars, leaving less room for Bitcoin narratives.
- Lyn Alden points out that AI “draws a lot of attention” and competes directly with Bitcoin for investor focus.
- The shift in narrative contributed to a softer Bitcoin rally despite broader market enthusiasm.
- When AI stocks dominate the conversation, Bitcoin’s unique story is harder to surface.
- Future price upside may require a distinct narrative that isn’t eclipsed by AI hype.
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00:15:31“AI is taking over, but Bitcoin is permissionless.” — Lyn Alden
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00:15:33“AI draws a lot of attention away from assets that are performing as well or better than it over the past few years.” — Lyn Alden
A precious‑metal bull run created a barbell effect, leaving sovereign and retail demand for Bitcoin absent
- The surge in gold and silver attracted both institutional and retail capital, forming a “barbell” where Bitcoin sat in the middle.
- Alden notes that neither sovereign reserves nor retail showed up for Bitcoin, while metals enjoyed heightened interest.
- This split reduced the overall demand pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
- The barbell analogy illustrates how two strong sides (gold/silver) can squeeze out a third asset.
- Overcoming this will require a narrative that differentiates Bitcoin from traditional stores of value.
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00:02:45“the precious metals bull run also kind of drew some attention.” — Lyn Alden
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00:09:46“Gold could be 5,000 or 10,000 per ounce, but that's a double from here.” — Lyn Alden
The lack of a broad crypto narrative left Bitcoin without a rallying point this cycle
- Even the host observed that sentiment was worse than 2022, indicating a pervasive negativity.
- Alden confirms there was “no really you alt season” and “no broad crypto thing” to capture attention.
- Without a unifying story, Bitcoin struggled to generate the viral buzz that fuels retail inflows.
- This narrative vacuum compounded the effects of AI and metals competition.
- Re‑establishing a compelling crypto‑wide narrative could reignite participation.
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00:00:36“The sentiment, I think, is worse than 2022. I've seen such negativity even from long-term holders.” — Natalie Brunell
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00:03:09“there wasn't really anything happening there.” — Lyn Alden
Institutional Influx and Market Dynamics
ETFs and high-net-worth retail accounts opened Bitcoin to institutions, but the influx was modest. Derivatives and the sheer size of the market make price manipulation harder, flattening volatility while also limiting upside.
ETF access brought high‑net‑worth retail and institutions into Bitcoin, but not a mass retail surge
- The corporate‑institutional side now has brokerage accounts and ETFs, making Bitcoin easier to acquire.
- Alden notes that only “higher net‑worth retail” and institutional players participated, not a deluge of everyday investors.
- This limited participation changed the liquidity profile, making the market deeper but less volatile.
- The modest inflow explains why the price didn’t explode despite easier access.
- Future upside may depend on broader retail adoption beyond the current institutional niche.
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00:03:30“the corporate institutional side... the ETFs opened up to them, made it easier.” — Lyn Alden
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00:04:10“the larger the asset gets, the more liquid it is. It's harder for any one entity to really move the price around.” — Lyn Alden
Derivatives and large institutional holdings make price manipulation harder, reducing volatility spikes
- Once an asset reaches multi‑trillion‑dollar size, derivatives become inevitable, spreading exposure across many participants.
- Alden explains that a huge asset “isn't magically only owned by retail,” meaning no single player can dominate price moves.
- This diffusion of ownership dampens the dramatic swings seen in earlier, more retail‑driven cycles.
- While volatility is lower, the market also becomes less prone to sudden crashes.
- The presence of derivatives therefore reshapes Bitcoin’s risk‑reward profile.
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00:04:45“derivatives part is like inevitable, meaning that once an asset's this big, there's no world we have a multi‑trillion dollar asset that is kind of magically only owned by retail.” — Lyn Alden
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00:27:41“the Fed can buy a little bit of the bonds and then also as that expands the size of the banking system they can also buy bonds on fractional reserves.” — Lyn Alden
Institutional participation caps upside but also prevents deep crashes, flattening the market profile
- Institutional money tends to be more measured, limiting extreme price surges.
- Alden points out that when liquidity is decent but valuation is high, Bitcoin can still sell off, showing a decoupling effect.
- The presence of large, disciplined players reduces the likelihood of a 90 % crash seen in earlier retail‑driven bear markets.
- Consequently, the market exhibits a more gradual, “grind” pattern rather than sharp peaks and troughs.
- Investors should adjust expectations to a flatter, more institutional‑driven price trajectory.
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00:20:30“Liquidity and M2 have diverged; high market cap vs liquidity can cause price decoupling.” — Lyn Alden
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00:40:21“Bitcoin's correlation to software stocks is unusual and they've been selling off.” — Lyn Alden
Macro Policy and Liquidity Landscape
The Federal Reserve's shift to a gradual, modest balance-sheet expansion limits macro stimulus for Bitcoin. At the same time, liquidity and M2 have begun to diverge, creating occasional price-decoupling, while cheap oil keeps inflation in check, influencing mining economics.
Gradual QE and modest balance‑sheet expansion limit macro stimulus for Bitcoin
- The Fed is expected to increase the balance sheet by only about $40 bn of short‑term Treasury purchases, far less than past massive QE rounds.
- Alden argues this “gradual print” scenario means macro‑level money creation won’t be a major catalyst for Bitcoin.
- Smaller stimulus reduces the indirect boost that large‑scale liquidity injections can provide to risk assets.
- Investors should therefore focus on asset‑specific drivers rather than expecting a macro‑driven rally.
- The policy environment points to a more subdued, asset‑by‑asset performance landscape.
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00:26:20“Gradual QE and modest balance‑sheet expansion limit macro stimulus.” — Lyn Alden
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00:35:02“Gradual print scenario means asset‑specific factors matter more than the macro backdrop.” — Lyn Alden
Liquidity and M2 have diverged; high market cap vs liquidity can cause price decoupling
- Historically, Bitcoin’s price moved in tandem with money‑supply growth (M2) about 83 % of the time.
- In the remaining 17 % (including now), valuation pressures cause Bitcoin to fall even when liquidity remains decent.
- This divergence explains why Bitcoin can sell off while broader money metrics stay strong.
- Alden highlights that a “very high market cap compared to average cost basis” is a key driver of such decoupling.
- Monitoring M2 versus market cap can give early warning of potential price stress.
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00:20:30“Liquidity and M2 have diverged; high market cap vs liquidity can cause price decoupling.” — Lyn Alden
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00:20:34“Liquidity still decent but price can fall due to valuation.” — Lyn Alden
Cheap oil keeps inflation low, indirectly supporting Bitcoin mining economics
- Oil remains inexpensive despite global demand, helping keep overall inflation pressures subdued.
- Lower energy costs reduce the operating expense for Bitcoin miners, preserving profitability.
- Alden notes that cheap oil “helps keep inflation down,” which in turn lessens the need for aggressive monetary easing.
- This environment can be favorable for Bitcoin, as mining costs stay manageable while macro stimulus is modest.
- However, any future oil price spikes could reverse this benefit, raising mining costs and pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
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00:15:35“Oil still cheap, helps keep inflation down.” — Lyn Alden
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00:15:31“AI is taking over, but Bitcoin is permissionless.” — Lyn Alden
Diversification as Risk Management
Because Bitcoin's cycle under-performed, spreading capital across stocks, gold, silver and other assets reduced disappointment. A balanced portfolio lets investors keep high-conviction bets while retaining flexibility to shift when markets turn.
Diversification across assets mitigates disappointment from a flat Bitcoin cycle
- Alden stresses that during a “bare market” like this one, owning only Bitcoin can feel painful.
- By also holding stocks, gold and silver, investors soften the blow of a stagnant Bitcoin price.
- The episode cites that silver “traded like a rocket ship” while Bitcoin lagged, illustrating the benefit of a multi‑asset approach.
- Diversification provides a smoother return profile and reduces psychological stress.
- The strategy is especially valuable when a single asset under‑performs for an extended period.
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00:45:14“Diversification looks unfashionable but in bear markets it's reminded why you can have a portfolio.” — Lyn Alden
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00:46:05“Spread bets across assets gives flexibility.” — Lyn Alden
Holding a mix of high‑conviction bets and broader portfolio provides flexibility to reallocate during market swings
- Alden advises that “diamond hands” can hold Bitcoin while “fast money” exits, creating space for reallocation.
- The same logic applies to other assets; when one sector peaks, capital can flow to under‑weighted positions.
- This approach prevents the need to sell at a loss during downturns.
- It also creates “dry powder” to double‑down on opportunities when they arise.
- A balanced mix of conviction and diversification is the core of a resilient long‑term strategy.
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00:48:34“Caution with that approach of feeling that if you're behind, they have to bet riskier because that's also the same mindset that people will then use to buy the riskiest, junkiest like altcoin.” — Lyn Alden
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00:48:38“they're thinking, well, Bitcoin can only go up a certain amount, whereas this no‑name token could go up 100x starting from such a tiny base.” — Lyn Alden
Even concentrated bets can be sized appropriately (e.g., 20 % vs 1 %) to balance risk without overexposure
- Alden notes that allocating a modest 1 % to a high‑volatility position is prudent, while a larger but still controlled 20 % can capture outsized upside.
- This sizing protects the core portfolio from catastrophic loss while still allowing for significant gains.
- The “diamond hands” analogy shows that a small core can hold Bitcoin while the rest of the portfolio stays diversified.
- Proper sizing also eases psychological pressure, as investors know the maximum at‑risk amount.
- The method aligns with a disciplined, long‑term wealth‑building framework.
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00:36:01“Diamond hands put the floor in, fast money gets out.” — Lyn Alden
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00:36:07“AI stocks eventually peak, Bitcoin becomes cheap.” — Lyn Alden
Investor Psychology and FOMO
Psychological pressures to "catch up" drive many investors toward risky altcoins and over-exposure. Recognizing investing as an art, not just a science, helps manage expectations and avoid costly mistakes.
Psychological pressure to ‘bet big’ when feeling behind can lead to over‑risk and disappointment
- Alden observes that investors who feel they’re late often double‑down on high‑risk assets, chasing 100× returns.
- This mindset creates a feedback loop where fear of missing out fuels reckless positioning.
- The result is frequent disappointment when the speculative bet fails.
- Alden recommends a measured approach, limiting exposure to a small, controlled percentage.
- Understanding this bias can protect investors from the emotional volatility that accompanies FOMO‑driven trades.
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00:48:34“Caution with that approach of feeling that if you're behind, they have to bet riskier because that's also the same mindset that people will then use to buy the riskiest, junkiest like altcoin.” — Lyn Alden
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00:48:38“they're thinking, well, Bitcoin can only go up a certain amount, whereas this no‑name token could go up 100x starting from such a tiny base.” — Lyn Alden
Fear of missing out drives pursuit of high‑risk altcoins, but Bitcoin’s limited upside may not satisfy that urge
- The host notes that many investors chase “junkiest” altcoins hoping for massive returns.
- Alden points out that Bitcoin’s permissionless nature makes it attractive, yet its upside is perceived as capped compared to speculative altcoins.
- This mismatch fuels a cycle where investors abandon Bitcoin for flashier, riskier projects.
- Education about Bitcoin’s long‑term store‑of‑value role can re‑align expectations.
- Balancing FOMO with a clear risk‑reward framework helps avoid over‑exposure to speculative tokens.
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00:51:01“Investing is an art, psychology based, and you can't predict human behavior.” — Lyn Alden
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00:53:04“Education is a key part.” — Lyn Alden
Investing is as much art as science; understanding human behavior is crucial for timing and risk
- Alden describes investing as a blend of quantitative analysis and psychological insight.
- She cites the “powder keg” of AI fears and societal polarization as examples of non‑quantifiable risk factors.
- Recognizing that markets are driven by narratives and emotions can improve timing decisions.
- The analogy to a chess game with shifting rules illustrates the need for adaptability.
- Successful investors blend data‑driven models with an awareness of crowd psychology.
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00:14:55“AI fears create a powder keg.” — Lyn Alden
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00:18:30“Bitcoin's permissionless nature makes it ideal for AI‑driven digital payments and self‑custody.” — Lyn Alden
Future of Bitcoin: Digital Money & Self-Custody
Bitcoin's permissionless, self-custodial nature makes it a natural fit for AI-driven payments and a future where digital money is essential. Its current share of global assets is tiny, but the potential to grow beyond 2 % is a core thesis.
Bitcoin’s permissionless nature makes it ideal for AI‑driven digital payments and self‑custody
- Alden explains that AI agents can spin up a Bitcoin wallet without KYC, unlike traditional banks.
- Permissionless access enables cheap micropayments and programmable money for AI systems.
- This technical advantage positions Bitcoin as the default settlement layer for future AI‑centric economies.
- The ability to self‑custody removes reliance on third‑party custodians, enhancing security.
- As AI adoption expands, demand for such frictionless, trustless payment rails is expected to rise.
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00:18:26“Bitcoin's permissionless nature makes it ideal for AI‑driven digital payments and self‑custody.” — Lyn Alden
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00:18:30“Bitcoin's permissionless nature makes it ideal for AI‑driven digital payments and self‑custody.” — Lyn Alden
Core value lies in being a decentralized ledger with potential to exceed 2 % of global assets
- Currently Bitcoin accounts for roughly 0.2 % of global assets, a tiny slice.
- Alden argues that even a modest rise to 2 % would represent a ten‑fold increase in market cap.
- Such a shift would dramatically alter Bitcoin’s macro‑economic relevance.
- The thesis hinges on broader adoption as a store‑of‑value and settlement layer.
- Tracking the share of global assets provides a clear metric for long‑term upside.
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00:24:58“Bitcoin is a decentralized ledger, currently 0.2% of global assets.” — Lyn Alden
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00:41:06“Bitcoin is a decentralized ledger, currently 0.2% of global assets.” — Lyn Alden
Education and tooling are now mature; adoption hinges on awareness of these solutions
- Alden notes that the ecosystem now offers user‑friendly wallets, stable‑coin bridges, and easy API integration.
- She stresses that the biggest barrier is still knowledge: people need to know the tools exist.
- Once awareness spreads, the frictionless nature of Bitcoin payments can drive broader usage.
- The “Bitcoin 101” book and other educational resources are part of this push.
- Continued outreach and clear documentation will be critical to moving from niche to mainstream.
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00:53:04“Education is a key part.” — Lyn Alden
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00:53:08“Tools are built now, solutions exist.” — Lyn Alden
Emerging Market Opportunities
Latin American banks delivered outsized returns, offering a high-growth niche similar to gold and silver. Rapid money-supply growth in emerging economies fuels local-currency stock rallies, though dollar-adjusted performance can lag, creating a diversification edge.
Latin American banks outperformed, offering a high‑growth niche comparable to gold and silver
- Alden highlights the surge of Brazil’s and Colombia’s biggest banks, which posted massive gains.
- She likens their performance to “gold and silver” in terms of upside.
- The growth stemmed from strong domestic demand and currency dynamics.
- This sector provides a diversification benefit for investors seeking non‑US exposure.
- Tracking these banks can capture upside while broader markets remain flat.
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00:11:34“Latin American banks performed strongly, like the biggest bank in Brazil, the biggest bank in Colombia, they were up a ton.” — Lyn Alden
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00:12:21“there's plenty of industry demand for it and then there's also the monetary or speculative component that can happen too.” — Lyn Alden
Emerging markets with high money‑supply growth can produce strong local‑currency returns, but dollar‑adjusted performance may lag
- Money‑supply growth of around 30 % a year in many emerging economies pushes local‑currency stock prices higher.
- However, when converted to USD, the performance often looks weaker due to currency depreciation.
- Alden notes that “if the money supply is growing up by… 30 % a year, it's hard for stocks to stay down in local currency terms.”
- This creates a divergence where local investors see gains, but global investors see muted returns.
- Understanding this dynamic helps allocate to emerging‑market equities for local‑currency exposure while managing FX risk.
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00:12:57“if the money supply is growing up by… 30% a year, it's hard for stocks to stay down in local currency terms.” — Lyn Alden
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00:13:07“when you look at how they're performing in dollar terms, they're usually not doing great in that kind of rough environment.” — Lyn Alden
Investors can capture upside by allocating to under‑covered emerging‑market equities as a diversification layer
- Alden points out a “record divergence” where emerging‑market stocks are soaring locally while global metrics lag.
- This divergence signals an opportunity for investors willing to take on currency risk.
- Adding a modest slice of these equities can improve portfolio resilience.
- The approach complements Bitcoin and traditional assets, offering a third source of return.
- Monitoring money‑supply trends and FX movements is essential to time entry and exit.
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00:13:47“We have a record divergence or near record divergence.” — Lyn Alden
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00:13:07“when you look at how they're performing in dollar terms, they're usually not doing great in that kind of rough environment.” — Lyn Alden
Precious Metals vs Bitcoin
Gold and silver retain high floors and strong upside, but Bitcoin's asymmetric risk-reward profile remains more pronounced. With dividend yields at record lows, gold's total return advantage narrows, while Bitcoin offers self-custody and digital utility.
Gold and silver have high floors and significant upside, but Bitcoin’s asymmetry remains higher
- Silver’s price floor is “pretty high” and its upside is still “significant,” mirroring gold’s resilience.
- Bitcoin, being far smaller, still offers a far larger upside‑to‑downside ratio.
- Alden notes that while metals have become less asymmetric, Bitcoin still provides a 10‑20× upside potential relative to its price.
- This asymmetry is a key driver for risk‑seeking investors.
- The comparison underscores why both asset classes can coexist in a diversified portfolio.
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00:06:10“silver ... floor is pretty high and the upside is pretty significant.” — Lyn Alden
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00:09:46“Gold could be 5,000 or 10,000 per ounce, but that's a double from here.” — Lyn Alden
Dividend yields are at record lows, making gold’s total return more attractive relative to Bitcoin
- Alden points out that S&P 500 dividend yields have fallen to just over 1 %, the lowest since the .com bubble.
- Low yields diminish the income component of gold‑related investments.
- Bitcoin, lacking dividends, competes on pure price appreciation and utility.
- The record‑low dividend environment narrows gold’s advantage, especially for income‑focused investors.
- This dynamic may shift some capital toward assets like Bitcoin that offer non‑income upside.
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00:10:41“Dividend yields are at a record low.” — Lyn Alden
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00:33:12“we're roughly on par like the bottom in dividend yield of all time is like the .com bubble and we're kind of back down to that like a little over 1% average dividend yield for the S&P 500.” — Lyn Alden
Both assets can serve as hedges, but Bitcoin offers self‑custody and digital utility absent in metals
- Bitcoin can be stored in a self‑custodial wallet, eliminating reliance on third‑party custodians.
- Metals require physical storage, insurance, and transport, adding cost and complexity.
- Alden emphasizes that “you can self‑custody it” as a core advantage over stocks and metals.
- This digital edge makes Bitcoin uniquely suited for a borderless, permissionless financial system.
- While both gold and Bitcoin can hedge inflation, Bitcoin’s utility adds an extra layer of value.
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00:34:25“Bitcoin can be self‑custodied unlike stocks.” — Lyn Alden
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00:34:28“The advantage of Bitcoin is that you can self‑custody it.” — Lyn Alden
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