Rate cuts tied to a rebound in jobs or re‑bounded inflation

The Fed would need a clear resurgence in employment growth or a re‑bound in inflation to justify pausing cuts later in the year.
Labor‑market resilience is therefore a key gauge for future monetary easing.
Without such signals, the Fed is likely to maintain its current stance.

PaulBloomberg Television00:03:53

Supporting quotes

Quote

“YOU WOULD NEED TO GET IT A REBOUNDED INFLATION OR AN EXTRAORDINARY RESURGENCE IN JOBS GROWTH TO JUSTIFY THE PAUSE TOWARD THE END OF THE YEAR.” — Paul

Quote

00:04:03

“YOU CAN GET SOME RESILIENCE IN THE JOB MARKET.” — Paul

From this concept

Fed's Reluctant Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to rush into easing until a leadership change, and even then policymakers remain cautious about inflation and job growth. Market expectations of multiple cuts are tempered by a dovish-but-still-guarded tone.

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