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90% confidence in human-level AI within 10 years, 50/50 on 1-3 years
  • Estimates 90% probability of 'country of geniuses in a data center' by 2035
  • Puts 50% probability on this happening within 1-3 years
  • Most confident about verifiable domains like coding first
  • Less certain about creative/unverifiable tasks like novel writing
Dario AmodeiDwarkesh Patel00:13:51

Supporting quotes

“On the basic hypothesis of, as you put it, within ten years we'll get to what I call a 'country of geniuses in a data center', I'm at 90% on that.” — Dario Amodei
“I have a hunch—this is more like a 50/50 thing—that it's going to be more like one to two, maybe more like one to three.” — Dario Amodei

From this concept

The End of the Exponential

Amodei argues we're nearing the end of exponential AI progress, with capabilities reaching human-level across many domains much sooner than most people expect. He discusses why public recognition lags behind technical reality.

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