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90% confidence in human-level AI within 10 years, 50/50 on 1-3 years
  • Estimates 90% probability of 'country of geniuses in a data center' by 2035
  • Puts 50% probability on this happening within 1-3 years
  • Most confident about verifiable domains like coding first
  • Less certain about creative/unverifiable tasks like novel writing
Dario AmodeiDwarkesh Patel00:13:51

Supporting quotes

On the basic hypothesis of, as you put it, within ten years we'll get to what I call a 'country of geniuses in a data center', I'm at 90% on that. Dario Amodei
I have a hunch—this is more like a 50/50 thing—that it's going to be more like one to two, maybe more like one to three. Dario Amodei

From this concept

The End of the Exponential

Amodei argues we're nearing the end of exponential AI progress, with capabilities reaching human-level across many domains much sooner than most people expect. He discusses why public recognition lags behind technical reality.

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