MemCast
MemCast / episode / insight
Two exponentials: technical progress and economic diffusion
  • Technical capability grows at ~10x/year (Anthropic's revenue growth)
  • Economic adoption grows fast but not infinitely fast (~3x/year for compute)
  • Diffusion faces real-world friction: enterprise procurement, security reviews, change management
Dario AmodeiDwarkesh Patel00:23:17

Supporting quotes

I think everything we've seen so far is compatible with the idea that there's one fast exponential that's the capability of the model. Then there's another fast exponential that's downstream of that, which is the diffusion of the model into the economy. Dario Amodei
Not instant, not slow, much faster than any previous technology, but it has its limits. Dario Amodei

From this concept

Economic Diffusion vs Technical Progress

Amodei distinguishes between the exponential of technical capability and the (still fast but slower) diffusion into the economy. He discusses why adoption isn't instantaneous even with transformative AI.

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