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Position sizing should reflect conviction and the statistical profile of the strategy (win‑rate vs. risk‑reward)
  • Nang shows that a strategy with a 60% win‑rate can still have a high probability of a seven‑loss streak due to variance.
  • He suggests scaling exposure up when confidence is high and scaling down during low‑confidence periods.
  • The trade‑off between win‑rate and payoff size determines the optimal Kelly fraction.
  • Using a hierarchy of non‑negotiables, cherry‑ons, and A+ setups helps allocate capital proportionally to conviction.
Rishi NangTitans Of Tomorrow01:37:44

Supporting quotes

I would have guessed very very slim like out 5% for seven losses in a row with a 60% win rate. Rishi Nang
I have a hierarchy where certain are non‑negotiables, others are cherry on tops and then what I've now cascaded towards is A+ setups, A setups and so forth. Rishi Nang

From this concept

Risk Management, Position Sizing & Edge Decay

Nang discusses how to size positions, the importance of monitoring edge decay, and why a disciplined approach to loss streaks is vital.

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